Below are the predictions I made when the nominations for the 78th Annual Academy Awards were announced on January 31st.
As I have closely followed the races over the last few weeks one thing became clear: these predictions are still who I think The Academy will give the Oscars to.
Yes, there is the chance that there will be a sweep by BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN in every category, and that means Michelle Williams wins for Best Supporting Actress, and Heath Ledger for Best Actor, but I am just not convinced that homophobic Hollywood will let this film sweep the Awards the same way THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS did.
There is also the chance that Amy Adams performance in JUNEBUG and Terrence Howard in HUSTLE & FLOW are just too unforgettable for the Academy to ignore.
And, there is also the chance that the votes for Heath Ledger and Philip Seymour Hoffman cancel each other out and thus Joaquin Phoenix takes the Oscar for Best Actor.
There are all those chances – and others – of upsets, and Hollywood does love to give it’s actors the Directing Oscar (meaning Clooney wins over Ang Lee), but as I look back on the way the votes should go using the past few decades as examples, and the reasons I have indicated below, I think the people I predicted would win on January 31st will still win.
So, I stand by them.
And if they lose, well then, I hope someone deserving wins!
Enjoy the Oscars!
The Oscar won’t actually be given out until March 5th, but if they were given out today, here are the people that I (Dan Reynish) think would win in the Six Major categories.
These predictions are based on industry buzz, the way the nominees have been acting during Hollywood’s annual awards season, who has won either a SAG or Golden Globe award, and finally, on the performance in or of the film.
Brokeback Mountain – All the buzz remains behind this film. CRASH has some headlines, but the buzz is all about BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN.
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote – WALK THE LINE is selling lots of DVDs and Terrence Howard has a nice groundswell of support, but Hoffman’s performance is just head and shoulders above everyone else’s that – barring a BROKEBACK sweep he is a lock to win.
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line – Remember the year Julia Roberts won, well now it is Reese’s turn.
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man – Had he only been nominated for SIDEWAYS last year…but he wasn’t, so this Oscar is his.
Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener – She was the only thing worth watching in an unwatchable movie, and with all of the previous acting awards to her credit, she wins and thanks Ralph FInes for being “Every actor’s dream to work with.”
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain – I believe in all of my predictions, but this is the evening’s one sure bet!