Odds Favor Head-Scratching Emmy Nominations
LOS ANGELES (Zap2it.com) The Primetime Emmy nominations are almost upon us, and there is much speculation that this will be the year that some previously unrecognized series will break through.
With stalwarts like “Friends” and “Frasier” no longer on the air, and “The Sopranos” ineligible on account of its extra-long hiatus, the thinking goes, shows like “Scrubs,” “Gilmore Girls” and “Nip/Tuck” might be able to break into the Emmy party. Then there are last season’s big hits, “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost,” which seem all but certain to gobble up a pile of nominations.
Of course, we’ve been saying that this looks like the year “Scrubs” or “Gilmore Girls” could break through for, what, four years now? And while “Nip/Tuck” wrangled five nominations last year, none went to its actors or writers.
With that in mind, we offer up the following, highly unscientific odds on what will happen at Thursday morning’s (July 14) nominations press conference. And remember, odds are for entertainment purposes only.
Odds an FX show will make the outstanding drama series field: 4 to 1.
With “The Sopranos” not competing and last year’s surprise, the now-cancelled “Joan of Arcadia,” unlikely to make the cut, the field is more open to the likes of “Nip/Tuck,” “The Shield” and “Rescue Me.” Denis Leary’s firefighting drama has received more ink recently, but we wouldn’t be surprised if “The Shield,” which had the added attraction of Glenn Close this season, makes the cut.
Odds at least one “Will & Grace” cast member will be nominated:
Even. Emmy voters are notoriously set in their ways, and it would be a pretty big upset if none of the long-running NBC show’s stars receives yet another nomination — despite the show’s ratings downturn last year.
Odds “Arrested Development” will again be nominated for outstanding comedy series: 3 to 2.
“Desperate Housewives” will likely grab one of the spots in the category and may be favored to win, even if it’s not exactly a comedy. But it would be pretty hard to pick four other shows ahead of “Arrested,” particularly since the show won the award last year.
Odds ABC will receive more nominations than it did last year: 1 to 5.
ABC had 33 nominations last year. “Desperate Housewives,” which could rack up multiple acting and writing nods, and “Lost,” which should be a shoo-in for a number of technical categories, to say nothing of the above-the-line people, could get that many just among the two of them.
Odds your favorite WB or UPN show will once again be ignored: Even.
If critics and anythingbut.com readers ran the Emmys, “Gilmore Girls” and “Veronica Mars” would be locks in their respective fields. We don’t, though, and despite the quality of both shows (to say nothing of “Everwood” or “America’s Next Top Model”), the TV Academy’s capacity to ignore both networks seems limitless.
Odds you’ll say “What the $&#@??” at least one time after seeing the nominees: Even.
Odds Kelsey Grammer will be nominated for outstanding actor in a comedy, just for old time’s sake: 50 to 1. But we wouldn’t be all that surprised.
Categories