This year it won’t be about who does get nominated, but people will focus on what and who didn’t! Just wait and see!

Oscars nominations may climb “Brokeback Mountain”
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – This year, the big ape doesn’t seem to stand much of a chance.
The Academy of Motion picture Arts and Sciences announces its Oscar nominations on Tuesday, and the betting is that small is beautiful in a year in which a spare, bleak film about a pair of gay cowboys, “Brokeback Mountain,” has stirred more movie talk than the $200 million return of “King Kong” or other costly epics.
In stark contrast to some Academy Award years, small films made by independent filmmakers who spent years fighting for financing are expected to dominate Hollywood’s most closely watched awards list, instead of big budget movies by Hollywood studios that have money to burn.
After all, nobody asked President Bush if he had seen the critically acclaimed remake of “King Kong,” but he was asked if he saw “Brokeback Mountain.” He found himself awkwardly ducking the question, although he offered to talk about ranching.
“Brokeback,” with its challenge to one of America’s most masculine preserves, Marlboro Country, has achieved a much sought after status in America — it has become the subject for much talk around office water coolers.
But whether it can win the Oscar for best picture when the Academy Awards are handed out on March 5 is another question. No film with a theme of gay love has won the prize, which is a symbol of mainstream success.
“Brokeback” has won many early critics and press group awards, but “Crash,” a racially charged drama full of unexpected twists and turns, stole the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday night. Its win put a temporary halt to the “Brokeback” bandwagon and suggested to some that there might be an Oscar contest this year, after all.
However, only one night before, Ang Lee, the Taiwanese director of “Brokeback,” was named the year’s best director by the Directors Guild of America, and winners of the DGA have a long history of winning Oscars.
“Brokeback’s” competition may come from “Crash,” “Walk the Line,” a bio drama of the stormy love affair between June Carter and Johnny Cash, and “Good Night, and Good Luck,” the story of newsman Edward R. Morrow’s fight against McCarthyism.
The big question for Oscar watchers is which film will round out the top five for best picture — will it be “The Constant Gardener,” a tale of drug company chicanery in Africa, “Syriana,” a complicated tale of oil politics, Steven Spielberg’s “Munich,” about the aftermath of the murder of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics, or maybe even longshot “King Kong,” Oscar winner Peter Jackson’s affectionate look at the big ape.
Many Oscar experts say the fight for best actor could come down to two men, Philip Seymour Hoffman for his performance as writer Truman Capote in “Capote,” and Heath Ledger for his performance as one of the cowboy lovers in “Brokeback.”
Time magazine film critic Richard Schickel says that Hoffman’s performance is the kind “that Oscar voters like. It is visible acting and very much against type, whereas Ledger’s is naturalistic and effective.”
Other possible contenders are David Strathairn for his pitch-perfect performance as broadcaster Murrow in George Clooney’s film on the McCarthy era; Joaquin Phoenix for playing Johnny Cash, warts, warbles and all; and the so far overlooked Ralph Fiennes, whose portrayal of a meek British diplomat in “The Constant Gardener” was overshadowed by his co-star Rachel Weisz, a possible candidate for best supporting actress.
Reese Witherspoon, who played June Carter Cash in “Walk the Line,” and Felicity Huffman, who plays a man waiting for a sex change operation in “Transamerica” are both considered shoo-ins for the best actress nomination. Other possible nominees are Dame Judi Dench for “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” a comedy set in wartime London, and Ziyi Zhang, the Chinese star of “Memoirs of a Geisha.”