My Picks Versus Their Reality
Overall, not a bad year for my predictions of the Academy Award nominations. I didnít get any one category 100% right but I got at least 3 out of 5 in every category. My final score was 22 out of 30.
While I may not have seen the absolute surprise that was the snub of Nicole Kidman and Jennifer Connelly or the actual nomination of Keisha Castle-Hughes for WHALE RIDER and Fernando Meirelles for CITY OF GOD, I did nail some of the surprises, especially Shohreh Aghdashloo for her work in HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG.
And man am I excited for Bill Murray!! I personally really wanted him to be nominated for his exceptional work in LOST IN TRANSLATION, and he was. I am also stoked about the fact that the picture was also nominated and so was writer/director Sophia Coppola.
In the end, I stand by my predictions, which you can compare with the actual nominations below.
Finally, if the awards were given out today, hereís who would win (I do reserve the right to chance these predictions in the weeks before the 76th Annual Academy Awards are given out on Sunday, February 29th):
Danís 2004 Early Oscar Predictions:
BEST PICTURE – The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
BEST DIRECTOR ñ Peter Jackson, THE LORD OF THE RINGS
BEST ACTOR ñ Bill Murray, Lost In Translation
BEST ACTRESS ñ Charlize Theron, Monster
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ñ Tim Robbins, MYSTIC RIVER
Best SUPPORTING ACTRESS ñ Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
DANíS PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE
TOP 5
* The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
* Cold Mountain
* Lost In Translation
* Mystic River
* Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
POSSIBLE OTHER 2
* In America
* Seabiscuit
ACTUAL NOMINEES
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
DAN CORRECTLY PREDICTED
4 out of 5 (Seabiscuit was listed as a possible).
DANíS PREDICTIONS FOR BEST DIRECTOR
TOP 5
* Sofia Coppola, Lost In Translation
* Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
* Peter Jackson, The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
* Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
* Peter Weir, Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
POSSIBLE OTHER 2
* Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, 21 Grams
* Gary Ross, Seabiscuit
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Fernando Meirelles, CITY OF GOD
Peter Jackson, THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
Sophia Coppola, LOST IN TRANSLATION
Peter Weir, MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
Clint Eastwood, MYSTIC RIVER
DAN CORRECTLY PREDICTED
4 out of 5.
DANíS PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS
TOP 5
* Jennifer Connelly, House Of Sand And Fog
* Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
* Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
* Charlize Theron, Monster
* Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
POSSIBLE OTHER 2
* Samantha Morton, In America
* Uma Thurman, Kill Bill: Vol. 1
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Keisha Castle-Hughes – WHALE RIDER
Diane Keaton – SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE
Samantha Morton – IN AMERICA
Charlize Theron – MONSTER
Naomi Watts – 21 GRAMS
DAN CORRECTLY PREDICTED
3 out of 5 (Morton was listed as a possible).
DANíS PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR
TOP 5
* Paul Giamatti, American Splendor
* Ben Kingsley, House Of Sand And Fog
* Jude Law, Cold Mountain
* Bill Murray, Lost In Translation
* Sean Penn, Mystic River
POSSIBLE OTHER 2
* Russell Crowe, Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World
* Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Johnny Depp – PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
Ben Kingsley – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Jude Law – COLD MOUNTAIN
Bill Murray – LOST IN TRANSLATION
Sean Penn – MYSTIC RIVER
DAN CORECTLY PREDICTED
4 out of 5
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
TOP 5
* Shoreh Aghdashloo, House Of Sand And Fog
* Hope Davis, American Splendor
* Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
* Scarlett Johansson, Lost In Translation
* Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
OTHERS
* Patricia Clarkson, Pieces Of April
* Laura Linney, Mystic River
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Shohreh Aghdashloo – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Patricia Clarkson – PIECES OF APRIL
Marcia Gay Harden – MYSTIC RIVER
Holly Hunter – THIRTEEN
RenÈe Zellweger – COLD MOUNTAIN
DAN CORECTLY PREDICTED
3 out of 5 (Clarkson was listed as a possible).
DANíS PREDICTIONS FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
TOP 5
* Sean Astin, The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
* Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
* Albert Finney, Big Fish
* Tim Robbins, Mystic River
* Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
OTHER CONTENDERS
* Jeff Bridges, Seabiscuit
* Bill Nighy, Love Actually
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Alec Baldwin – THE COOLER
Benicio Del Toro – 21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou – IN AMERICA
Tim Robbins – MYSTIC RIVER
Ken Watanabe – THE LAST SAMURAI
DAN CORRECTLY PREDICTED
3 out of 5.
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