Oscar Watchers Foresee Golden Globes for ‘Chicago’ and ‘The Hours’
Oscar could be headed to Chicago, but first it will get a Golden Globe.
Though Golden Globes voters ó they are the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association ó and Academy Award voters do not overlap, the Globes are a major influence.
Tom O’Neil, author of Movie Awards, calls the Globes “an uncanny Oscar crystal ball. In the past 59 years, 43 of Oscar’s best pictures had previously won one of those two best picture awards at the Globes. That’s a remarkable overlap, and no mere coincidence.”
Up for best drama Globes are: About Schmidt, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers and The Pianist. The best musical or comedy nominees are About A Boy, Adaptation, Chicago, My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Nicholas Nickleby.
“Chicago is the clear front-runner,” for the Oscar, says Damien Bona, author of Inside Oscar 2.
Especially if the musical, starring Renee Zellweger, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Richard Gere, wins the Golden Globe Sunday (8 p.m. ET/PT on NBC).
“It’s vastly entertaining,” explains Jim Piazza, co-writer with Gail Kinn of The Academy Awards: The Complete History of Oscar. “And it’s the first musical in many years to grab a huge popular base at the box office.”
O’Neil adds: “It’s got mega-buzz. It’s got the box office potential to break $100 million, which is often a key component. It’s packed with stars. And the Oscar voters will like the message: ‘The musical is back.’ ”
But there’s at least one Chicago bear among the experts. Though agreeing that it is a front-runner, Emanuel Levy, author of All About Oscar, says that The Hours has a slight edge over Chicago for the Academy Award.
“The Hours is the prestige movie that will become the must-see film,” predicts Levy, who believes that this drama starring the triple-threat Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore and Meryl Streep is likely to win best drama at the Globes. “The Hours has some pluses that Chicago does not have. It has a literary cachet because it is based on a Pulitzer Prize (winning) novel by Michael Cunningham. (And) it may win more nominations because it will also get supporting awards and writing awards.
“And Nicole Kidman,” he concludes, “is the hottest actress in Hollywood.”
O’Neil concedes, “No musical has won best picture since 1968,” when Oliver! won. “Even though Chicago seems to be out front, it’s very vulnerable. Keep your eye on the best drama category at the Globes Sunday. It will probably decide the chief rival to Chicago.”
At his award-tracking Web site, goldderby.com, O’Neil predicts that The Hours will win best drama.
Not Bona. “I have a sneaking feeling that The Pianist will win best drama,” he says. The Pianist is a story about the Holocaust from director Roman Polanski.
All agree that the Globes are likely to exert more influence on the Oscars this year than in the past. Early awards from critics’ groups have been all over the map, indicating a lack of consensus.
The Globes’ unusual practice of giving out two best picture awards means that it can propel two films to the forefront. The Oscars tend to overlook comedies and musicals, but not this year.
The musical and comedy nominees include not only Chicago but critics’ favorite Adaptation and the record-breaking crowd pleaser My Big Fat Greek Wedding.
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